By: Alex "Pokey" Herd
Last year I learned a very valuable lesson about when to give certain players a chance. Shortly after my draft, while still in the preseason, I saw Montario Hardesty go down for the season. I assumed this was great news for me since I had made a wonderful draft choice of Jerome Harrison (in the 4th round). I had only thought of this injury as a way of assuring the #1 guy would have his spot locked up.
Unfortunately for me, one guy in my league had thought deeper than this and picked up Peyton Hillis. Upon seeing that pickup on the waiver wire, all I could think was "who is this Hillis guy, and why would someone pick him up when he's a 3rd string guy moved up to backup." Turns out he did it because he knew something I didn't, which was an opportunity to play could be all someone needs to put up big points. It was in the first week of the season when Hillis started taking more carries than Harrison and it led to one of the most productive running backs in the league.
The same lesson could have been learned from the Vick/Kolb scenario. Kolb goes down early in the season and according to most experts and even Andy Reid, Vick was going to take over for 2 weeks and Kolb would have the job back as soon as he healed. "Why would I need to pick up Vick? I'd have to drop someone else and only get 2 starts out of him." That's what I thought to myself and what I said to the guy in my league (I won't say who) who picked him up. I'm sure you know the rest, Vick became the 2nd highest scorer in the league and I missed the playoffs by quite a few games.
Clearly not every guy who gets a chance to move up on the depth chart is going to be a guy who breaks your season wide open. Brandon Jackson comes to mind as well. But even Jackson managed to put up points worthy of a roster spot in many leagues. And that's why you pick up these guys, because they have a shot at being the Vick or the Hillis once the opportunity is upon them. It stands to reason that unless you are an amazing sports forecaster, you will have players that can be dropped just to give a guy a chance.
To show an example, I'll pick 5 teams in my league who had a large variance in their final standings and show the last 3-4 offensive selections out of the draft and compare with some of the guys who got a chance to start because of injuries.
Drafted Players
Tim Hightower, Round 8 - 109 pts
Devin Aromashodu, Round 9 - 18 pts
Chad Henne, Round 10 -147 pts
Larry Johnson, Round 13 - 0 pts
Jacoby Jones, Round 12 - 117.5 pts
Carson Palmer, Round 11 - 212 pts
Louis Murphy, Round 12 - 87.5 pts
Tashard Choice, Round 11 - 53.5 pts
Golden Tate, Round 9 - 35.5 pts
Kenny Britt, Round 10 - 147 pts
Joey Galloway, Round 11 - 20 pts
Julius Jones, Round 13 - 27.5 pts
Devin Thomas, Round 14 - 13 pts
Average: 75.96
Players who moved up due to injury
Brandon Jackson - 133.5 pts
Mike Vick - 300 pts
Peyton Hillis - 248.5 pts
Mario Manningham - 172 pts
Brian Westbrook - 79 pts
Anthony Dixon - 35.5 pts
Chris Ivory - 91.5 pts
John Kitna - 150 pts
Andrew Quarless - 34.5 pts
Matt Flynn - 25 pts
Bernard Berrian - 35 pts
Mike Tolbert - 160.5 pts
and oh yea... Arian Foster - 346 pts
Average: 139.3
So Arian Foster was drafted and expected to do decently well, but there's no doubt the Ben Tate injury helped his playing time and enormous season. Sure there are some busts, but of the guys I listed drafted late, only 5 of 13 scored over 100 points for the season. You might pick up a guy supposed to get playing time and have it not work out, but you could just as easily pick up this year's Vick or Foster and chances are the player you give up might not be worth holding on to in the first place. Don't make the mistake I did, grab anyone you can that gets a better chance to play than expected.
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