Playing Time = Points (A lot of the time)

By: Alex "Pokey" Herd

Last year I learned a very valuable lesson about when to give certain players a chance.  Shortly after my draft, while still in the preseason, I saw Montario Hardesty go down for the season.  I assumed this was great news for me since I had made a wonderful draft choice of Jerome Harrison (in the 4th round).  I had only thought of this injury as a way of assuring the #1 guy would have his spot locked up.

Unfortunately for me, one guy in my league had thought deeper than this and picked up Peyton Hillis.  Upon seeing that pickup on the waiver wire, all I could think was "who is this Hillis guy, and why would someone pick him up when he's a 3rd string guy moved up to backup."  Turns out he did it because he knew something I didn't, which was an opportunity to play could be all someone needs to put up big points.  It was in the first week of the season when Hillis started taking more carries than Harrison and it led to one of the most productive running backs in the league.

The same lesson could have been learned from the Vick/Kolb scenario.  Kolb goes down early in the season and according to most experts and even Andy Reid, Vick was going to take over for 2 weeks and Kolb would have the job back as soon as he healed.  "Why would I need to pick up Vick?  I'd have to drop someone else and only get 2 starts out of him."  That's what I thought to myself and what I said to the guy in my league (I won't say who) who picked him up.  I'm sure you know the rest, Vick became the 2nd highest scorer in the league and I missed the playoffs by quite a few games.

Clearly not every guy who gets a chance to move up on the depth chart is going to be a guy who breaks your season wide open.  Brandon Jackson comes to mind as well.  But even Jackson managed to put up points worthy of a roster spot in many leagues.  And that's why you pick up these guys, because they have a shot at being the Vick or the Hillis once the opportunity is upon them.  It stands to reason that unless you are an amazing sports forecaster, you will have players that can be dropped just to give a guy a chance.

To show an example, I'll pick 5 teams in my league who had a large variance in their final standings and show the last 3-4 offensive selections out of the draft and compare with some of the guys who got a chance to start because of injuries.

Drafted Players


Tim Hightower,  Round 8 - 109 pts
Devin Aromashodu, Round 9 - 18 pts
Chad Henne, Round 10 -147 pts
Larry Johnson, Round 13 - 0 pts
Jacoby Jones, Round 12 - 117.5 pts
Carson Palmer, Round 11 - 212 pts
Louis Murphy, Round 12 - 87.5 pts
Tashard Choice, Round 11 - 53.5 pts
Golden Tate, Round 9 - 35.5 pts
Kenny Britt, Round 10 - 147 pts
Joey Galloway, Round 11 - 20 pts
Julius Jones, Round 13 - 27.5 pts
Devin Thomas, Round 14 - 13 pts

Average: 75.96

Players who moved up due to injury


Brandon Jackson - 133.5 pts
Mike Vick - 300 pts
Peyton Hillis - 248.5 pts
Mario Manningham - 172 pts
Brian Westbrook - 79 pts
Anthony Dixon - 35.5 pts
Chris Ivory - 91.5 pts
John Kitna - 150 pts
Andrew Quarless - 34.5 pts
Matt Flynn - 25 pts
Bernard Berrian - 35 pts
Mike Tolbert - 160.5 pts
and oh yea... Arian Foster - 346 pts

Average: 139.3

So Arian Foster was drafted and expected to do decently well, but there's no doubt the Ben Tate injury helped his playing time and enormous season.  Sure there are some busts, but of the guys I listed drafted late, only 5 of 13 scored over 100 points for the season.  You might pick up a guy supposed to get playing time and have it not work out, but you could just as easily pick up this year's Vick or Foster and chances are the player you give up might not be worth holding on to in the first place.  Don't make the mistake I did, grab anyone you can that gets a better chance to play than expected.

7 guys you'll be glad you reached for, and 7 you won't

By: Alex "Pokey" Herd

This is the first blog post that is associated with the podcast Ryan and I are doing called Football Overhaul.  Please use the links to the left to listen to (and maybe subscribe) to our podcast, like our fan page on facebook, check out Ryan's twitter and maybe our Tumblr.  Any questions that you'd like read on the show and answered can be e-mailed to Footballoverhaul@gmail.com.  That being said, here we go:

One of the happiest moments of the summer was hearing that the lockout was finally over and I wouldn't have to spend Sundays leaving the apartment or interacting with people other than to say "did you see that play?"  It means that I can watch my team, the Green Bay Packers, defend their title while trying to capture one of my own.  As much as I love the sport and watching those who are skilled enough to perform at it, I enjoy almost as much using my own "skills" to try to win a fantasy football league against 13 of my own friends and take home the trophy.  Because we are serious enough to actually have a trophy as a prize to the winner.

Unlike with the players in the NFL who may be able to pull off surprise wins by running faster, throwing further, or hitting harder than anyone expected, the only control I have over my own success is to research a lot of statistics, make a few guesses and adjust as the weeks go on.  The start to all my success or failure comes from the draft.  If you're doing a draft, first of all congratulations you are about to participate in one of the most entertaining and time consuming forms of entertainment.  When you are in the draft, it is inevitable that you will find yourself in a situation where you need to choose, reach for a player earlier than he is projected to get taken, or hope the rankings are right and go for the best available.  Usually in the first few rounds, picking at the expected value isn't a bad idea but once you get to the middle of the draft, being a sheep and picking what all the cool kids are picking is a good way to miss out on some talent that you could easily get by thinking on your own.  

In Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto (which you can find on ESPN.com) he lists a stat that in the past 3 years, only 43% of top 20 RBs  and WRs were projected to be top 20 at their position.  This means that following projections will work out, but less often than trying to predict who will be that guy to climb the rankings, assuming you're good at it.  And that's where I come in and try to help.  I am by no means always right about this sort of thing, hell I didn't even make the playoffs in my league last year, but I've done the research and here's who I'd be thinking about during my draft.  If I'm wrong, it's your fault for listening to me but if I'm right, well you're welcome, I take cash as well as checks.

7 guys you'll be glad you reached for:

1. Darren McFadden, OAK RB -  It's a bit of a stretch to say that getting the projected 12th best RB is a reach BUT I've said on the podcast, I wouldn't be surprised to see McFadden as a top 5 guy this year.  Injuries hurt his numbers during the past two years but a healthy McFadden bust out with over 1,000 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards and 10 TDs (and that was in only 14 games).  If he can stay healthy I think he'll get a few more TDs and even more yards.  He's being projected to go early in the 3rd round of a 10 team draft, I would take him with any pick in the 2nd round and maybe reach with a late first round pick.

2. Daniel Thomas, MIA RB -  Another guy I mentioned on the podcast, Thomas has a lot of breakout potential.  With the return of both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown seeming to be unlikely, he would be very likely to start for a Miami team that has been very rush heavy of late.  Plus if the rumors are true and the Dolphins get a solid, veteran QB to help take some defensive pressure off, Thomas could end up in the top 15 RBs this year.  I don't think I would draft him quite that high but projected to be the 28th best RB seems way too low for his situation.

3. Mike Williams, TB WR -  Seeing that the first 3 guys I suggest taking are from teams like Oakland, Miami, and Tampa shocks me but Williams is another guy in a great situation.  In his rookie season he put up just under 1,000 yards and 11 TDs.  The young QB Josh Freeman leading the TB offense seems to be a great fit and he sure seems to like Williams.  He's already ranked in the top 15 WRs but with so many questions at the RB position this year, I would recommend taking Williams ahead of many questionable RBs and take what will be a sure thing.

4. Matthew Stafford, DET QB - The only reason the Matthew Stafford won't finish as one of the best QBs for fantasy would be if he gets hurt again.  A situation that isn't all that unlikely since he's only played in 13 games in his first 2 seasons.  But Stafford is a tough kid as he showed by throwing a successful 2 point conversion attempt the play after destroying his shoulder.  He has Megatron to throw to and looked brilliant in the 3 games he played last year.  He will be just around the top 10 mark for QBs this year and he may not be the best option for your 1 QB on your roster, but he should be the top picks among "backup" QBs in a 10 team league.

5. Shonn Greene - NYJ RB - Much of Greene's value was lost last year by the surprising role LT played by making great plays on third down and on the goal line.  That sapped the TD potential from Greene.  However, I don't see LT putting together yet another surprising year and he did fall off a bit at the end of last year.  Look for this to be the year that Greene takes over for the Jets offense.

6. Brett Favre - no, I'm kidding.

6. Santana Moss, FA WR - Moss is a free agent and will most likely be a #2 or #3 guy wherever he ends up but at 32 years old he set a career high in receptions last year and showed he can run from the slot and still get the job done.  Not projected to go until the 8th round, Moss has always had the defense focus on him and has always gotten the job done, he should be drafted earlier especially with an opportunity to go to a new team.

7. Randy Moss, FA WR - OK, even I know this a major risk BUT it's also my opinion that Randy Moss still has something left in the tank.  If he ends up on a team with a bad QB then ignore this and pretend it never happened.  However, if he ends up on a team with a good offense then take him.  Don't expect him to be in the top 20 WRs or anything but considering many people will let him get to the 12th round or later, if he's there around round 10 or so, take him.  And be prepared to laugh at those who doubted you, or have them laugh at you.

So now you know, when you're sitting in the draft, thinking about whether you want to reach for someone, there is 7 guys you might want to consider.  But then the question remains, when do you make the reach, who are the guys worth passing over.  Well I also have 7 guys I'd pass over given how they're rated right now.

1. Michael Vick, PHI QB - I know what you're thinking and yes I did manage to watch a few NFL games last year and actually participated in fantasy.  I'm not saying Vick won't be a top 3 QB this year, hell he might even be the best.  And I'm not saying don't take him at the end of the first round or so.  What I'm saying is this, he will not do what he did last year, he will get hurt and he will miss time.  All I'm saying is don't take him first overall which is what I've heard some people say.  A consistent, superstar RB or WR will serve you better than a QB who had 1 ridiculous year and plays in a way that there's almost no way to avoid injury.  You've been warned.

2. Arian Foster, HOU RB - What Foster did last year was amazing and more importantly it showed that he is truly talented.  However, the Texans have usually been a pass first team and now that Ben Tate will be back to take some carries from Foster his numbers will drop.  Like Vick, I'm not saying he won't be a great RB but he won't be the #1 back and considering I don't know how far he will drop, I'm not taking him top 5 in the draft.

3. Michael Turner, ATL RB - Michael Turner was hot 2 years ago, and he was very good last year as well, but he has his downsides.  He doesn't get many receptions at all and by the end of the season last year he struggled a lot.  Atlanta has a good, young QB with talented WRs and young RBs who have shown they can get things done.   Turner's TDs will drop and maybe his carries as well.  Be careful about jumping on him.

4. Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR - Nick's 2010 season was shocking.  What was thought to be a bunch of nobody WRs on the Giants turned out one of the top WRs of the season, however I don't think a repeat season is coming up.  The Giants might be losing Bradshaw at RB and are still run by Eli Manning.  I know Eli keeps putting up good numbers but I feel the way about him how I would playing my grandpa in chess.  Yeah he beats me every single time but I go into every game expecting to win because he needs help wiping himself so how could he have his faculties together enough to beat me at chess.  Once you get that great image out of your head think about it this way, Nicks will be like the 2008 Ryan Grant.  He had a breakout season in 2007 but then the defense realized how good he was and set about stopping him, the same thing will happen to Nicks.  Did someone say...

5. Ryan Grant, GB RB - Many owners were devastated to see Ryan Grant go down in game 1 of the season and many more were almost as disappointed to see his replacement Brandon Jackson fail to pick up large amounts of points in his stead.  It would be easy to say Grant is back and he should still be seen as a reliable, starting RB.  However, the Packers have been and still are a pass focused team that hands off just enough to remind the defense they're allowed to do that. Not to mention that Starks looks likely to fit his way into a timeshare possibility.  He still is a starting RB but don't expect those kind of nunbers.

6. Brandon Lloyd - DEN WR - Lloyd was a waiver wire wet dream last year.  He astounded many with the numbers he put up.  However, Orton faltered down the stretch and became the QB everyone knew he really was, giving Tebow the start.  Whether Orton comes back and leads the team or Tebow does, Lloyd will not get a chance to put up those numbers again because the signal caller for the Broncos won't be as reliable as the position was last year, no matter who gets the job.

7. Michael Crabtree - SF WR - Crabtree was once again a huge let down last year for anyone willing to hope he did better in his second year.  Remember when he held out for more money?  I bet he's glad he did because his talent on the field is not worth the money he got.  As long as the 49ers seem dedicated to the idea of giving Alex Smith one more chance, Crabtree is not going to bust out and he won't be worth taking in anything but a deep league or a very late pick.  Maybe if SF gets a new QB who will help him out but until then...